UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates are declining in 22 health districts but much of the state is still in surge, including many rural districts in Southwest, Southside and Eastern Virginia.
  • Models forecast rapid decline across the state in the coming weeks, though cases could rise if Virginians relax prevention measures.
  • Despite the recent decline in case rates, levels remain near record highs across the Commonwealth. All counties in Virginia are still
    considered to have “High” community transmission levels.
  • Hospitalizations in Virginia reached record high levels this week, exceeding last year’s peak by 25%. Though Omicron is milder for
    most, it is still capable of causing serious illness and death.
  • Vaccination strongly protects against hospitalization and death.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday at 1:00 PM.