UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

NOTE: VDH is currently completing a report on the COVID-19 modeling and projection project. We would appreciate it if you would complete this quick survey to provide feedback and insight on how this information is used.

Key Takeaways

  • Cases continue to decline in most of the state. Three health districts are in slow growth but this is from low levels and may be influenced by data entry backlogs.
  • Likewise, most of the state is at Low COVID-19 Community Level according to the CDC, while no counties are at High levels at the time of publication.
  • The BA.2 subvariant will likely be the dominant variant in the coming weeks. It is unclear whether BA.2 will cause a surge in Virginia but if it does, it is projected to have less impact than the Delta surge last fall.
  • Vaccination, including boosters when eligible, remains the most effective method to manage risks from COVID-19 variants.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday at 1:00 PM.