UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • The CDC estimates that the new BA.2 Omicron subvariant now accounts for about 68% of new cases in Virginia. We expect it to continue to out-compete BA.1. In another few weeks, BA.2 will account for almost all new cases, having displaced BA.1.
  • Most health districts are still showing decline. Yet, across Virginia, case-rates are beginning to plateau. The basic reproduction number (Rₑ) is now nearing one. This implies that the epidemic decline is stalling. Daily case-rates may level off in the coming weeks.
  • Washington DC has plateaued at about 20 daily cases per 100,000. Virginia’s other neighbors are still in slow decline. Most European nations have crested the BA.2 wave and are in decline.
  • Models suggest that BA.2 may cause a minor surge in Virginia. But so far there is no sign of rapid growth in the Commonwealth.
  • Note that this is an interim report. Models will next be run on 2022-04-13 for release the following Friday.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday at 1:00 PM.