UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Statewide case-rates are up slightly from last week but remain low. Test positivity and hospitalizations are also at near historic lows.
  • The basic reproduction number (Rₑ) is now slightly above one. This implies that case rates may have “bottomed out”.
  • The BA.2 variant is now dominant across the USA, and accounts for nearly 85% of all new cases in Virginia.
  • Nine districts are now showing slow growth, with a further six in plateau. Washington, DC has also plateaued, and New York state is showing slow growth. Neighboring states are still in decline.
  • Wastewater surveillance is detecting early signs of case growth.
  • Models suggest that a surge is possible in the coming months. This potential wave may exceed case-rates seen during the Delta surge. However, we do not expect as many hospitalizations or deaths.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday at 1:00 PM.