UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Statewide case-rates are up from last week. However, most of Virginia is still experiencing “Low” COVID19 community levels.
  • Surveillance artifacts continue to affect both models and metrics. These are largely limited to county-level data. They should not affect health district or statewide projections.
  • The basic reproduction number (Rₑ) remains near one in most regions. This suggests that statewide case rates have plateaued.
  • Some districts are still in decline, but 18 are now in slow growth. Two districts are also in surge, the first detected since February 11th. Nationally, New Jersey is also in surge, while Washington DC and five northern states are in slow growth. Maryland has plateaued.
  • Wastewater surveillance continues to detect signs of case growth.
  • The new BA.2.12.1 sub-lineage is out-competing BA.2, indicating a transmission advantage over BA.2. Together, the two now account for almost 95% of new cases in Virginia.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday at 1:00 PM.