UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Cases have increased from recent lows, nationally and in several regions of Virginia.
  • Omicron’s BA.2 subvariant is dominant in Virginia and nationally, while the BA.2.12.1 subvariant is beginning to make inroads, particularly in New York and the Northeast.
  • Behavior changes and Omicron’s subvariants may drive a summer surge. The model suggests case and hospitalization peaks somewhere between levels seen during the Delta and Omicron waves.
  • Projected deaths are much lower than previous waves, as Virginia’s immunity profile continues to improve due to vaccinations, boosters and previous infections, and as treatments become available.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday at 1:00 PM.