UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • 28 of Virginia’s 35 Health Districts are now in growth trajectories, including 11 in surge. Case growth is widespread in Virginia.
  • Nationally, 10 states and the District of Columbia are in growth trajectories, mostly in the Northeast.
  • Omicron variants BA.2 and BA.2.12.1 now account for almost all sequenced cases in Virginia and nationally. The CDC estimates that BA.2.12.1 is now responsible for about 40% of new cases in Virginia.
  • BA.2 is more transmissible than the original Omicron variant (BA.1), and BA.2.12.1 is even more transmissible than BA.2. Due to this growth advantage, we expect BA.2.12.1 to become the dominant variant in the coming weeks.
  • Vaccination is effective at preventing severe disease and death caused by these Omicron variants. It reduces, but does not eliminate, the risk of infection and transmission.
  • Note that this is an interim week report. Models were last run on 2022-04-27. The next modeling update will be 2022-05-11 for release the following Friday. 

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday at 1:00 PM.