UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Most health districts (22 of 35) are now in surge, with another 11 in slow growth. Other states are having surges of their own. Most of the Northeastern states are seeing rapid case increases.
  • The basic reproduction number (Rₑ) is above one for all regions of the Commonwealth. This implies that case rates will continue to grow.
  • The CDC estimates that the BA.2.12.1 subvariant represents almost 50% of new cases in HHS Region 3, which includes Virginia. It will likely become dominant in the next few weeks. The subvariant is more transmissible than the ancestral BA.2.
  • Models forecast a significant surge of cases in the coming weeks. Case rates are not expected to reach levels seen during the January wave. But they will likely exceed those seen in pre-Omicron waves.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.