UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Statewide case-rates continue to increase. Most of Virginia is still experiencing “Low” or “Medium” community levels.
  • Transmission rates (Rₑ) are above one for Virginia and in all six regions. 31 of 35 health districts are in growth trajectories, including 24 in surge trajectories.
  • The CDC estimates that the BA.2.12.1 Omicron subvariant is now dominant in the mid-Atlantic region. It accounts for about 56% of sequenced cases in Virginia. The BA.2 subvariant accounts for a further 43% of new cases.
  • Models project continued case growth across the state, with cases peaking in the summer. However the impact in terms of hospitalizations and deaths is likely to be lower compared to past surges.
  • Note that this is an interim week report. Models were last run on 2022-05-11. The next modeling update will be 2022-05-25 for release the following Friday. 

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.