UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Omicron subvariant BA.2.12.1 is very likely dominant in Virginia, bringing with it a higher effective transmission rate than BA.2.
  • 92 of Virginia’s 133 localities are at medium or high CDC community levels, including 27 at high. Masking in indoor public places is recommended at high community levels.
  • All of Virginia’s 35 health districts are in growth trajectories, including 30 in surge trajectories.
  • Current projections show that BA.2.12.1 may cause peak hospital admissions (in August) slightly exceeding those experienced last January. Shortened lengths of stay may ameliorate the burden on hospitals. The modeling team is closely monitoring COVID-19 hospitalization rates and lengths of stay to assess potential burden.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.