UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Posted on by alextelionis

Key Takeaways

  • Statewide case rates have declined slightly from last week. However, it is unclear how the Memorial Day holiday may have affected case ascertainment rates.
  • Twenty-five of thirty-five health districts are in growth trajectories. This includes twenty one districts in surge trajectories.
  • Twelve counties in Virginia are experiencing high community levels of COVID19. Masking in public indoor places is still recommended for those who live in these counties. Additionally 65 districts are at medium community levels. The CDC recommends persons at high risk continue to mask at these levels.
  • According to the CDC’s Nowcast, the BA.2.12.1 subvariant accounts for almost 70% of new cases in HHS Region 3, which includes Virginia.
  • Note that this is an interim week report. Models were last run on 2022-05-25. The next modeling update will be 2022-06-08 for release the following Friday. 

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.