UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Omicron subvariant BA.2.12.1 is dominant in Virginia, bringing with it a higher effective transmission rate than BA.2.
  • The BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants may account for 10% of cases in HHS region 3, which includes Virginia. These subvariants show increased immune escape. Vaccination remains effective at preventing severe disease and death.
  • 91 of Virginia’s 133 localities are at medium or high CDC community levels, including 22 at high. Masking in indoor public places is recommended at high community levels. Masking is also advised for high-risk individuals in areas with medium community levels.
  • Of Virginia’s thirty-five health districts, eighteen are experiencing growth trajectories. This includes ten districts in surge.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.