UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Per CDC estimates, BA.2.12.1 remains the dominant subvariant in Virginia. But BA.4 and BA.5 continue to make inroads, and may account for a combined 20% of new cases in Virginia. These subvariants have stronger immune escape properties than previous Omicron subvariants.
  • For the second week in a row, the Commonwealth’s reproductive number (Rₑ) is below one. The same holds for all six regions. Furthermore, twenty of the thirty-five health districts are in declining or plateauing trajectories.
  • The latest models are more encouraging than those produced last week. The current course scenario projects a continued slow decline. The BA.4/BA.5 scenario suggests the possibility of a small surge starting in July, but not exceeding the Delta surge of Fall 2021.

Please note a change in cadence. To better synchronize with holidays and internal needs, we have moved our schedule forward by one week. This has resulted in back-to-back full modeling weeks. As there are only minor changes between last week and this one, there will be no discussion page. But we have updated our dashboards and the results on page two. From here, we will continue with a biweekly schedule. The next full modeling update will be on 2022-06-29, for release the following Friday. Interim week reports will continue to include updates to key metrics and district trajectories.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.