UVA COVID-19 Model Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • 17 Virginia counties are at high community levels, and 63 are at medium. Residents of these counties should follow recommended prevention measures as appropriate.
  • BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron subvariants continue to make inroads, and may account for a third of new cases in HHS Region 3, which includes Virginia. These subvariants have stronger immune escape properties than previous Omicron subvariants but so far show no evidence of increased transmission rates or severity.
  • 28 of Virginia’s 35 health districts are in declining trajectories, and an additional 3 are in plateau. Model projections show continued declines, thought BA.4 and BA.5 may cause a bump up in cases in late summer.

Please note a change in cadence. To better synchronize with holidays and internal needs, we have moved our schedule forward by one week.  The next full modeling update will be on 2022-06-29, for release the following Friday. Interim week reports will continue to include updates to key metrics and district trajectories.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

There is no surveillance update this week. Please visit the COVID-19 Data in Virginia site for the latest data.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.