UVA COVID-19 Model Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • 28 Virginia counties are at high community levels, and 75 are at medium, both increasing from last week. Residents of these counties should follow recommended prevention measures as appropriate.
  • BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron subvariants continue to make inroads, and may account for a third of new cases in HHS Region 3, which includes Virginia. These subvariants have stronger immune escape properties than previous Omicron subvariants but so far show no evidence of increased transmission rates or severity.
  • Fewer (23) of Virginia’s 35 health districts are in decline than last week, and 7 are in slow growth trajectories. Models show continued declines in most regions. Cases are projected to increase in far Southwest Virginia, and may rise in some scenarios in other regions.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.