UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates remain level but are still high in some areas of the Commonwealth. On average, rates are about four times higher than they were in Summer of 2021. Hospitalizations are also climbing.
  • Two health districts are now in surge again, and twenty-four are in slow growth. This is a significant departure from last week when only seven districts showed any growth.
  • The CDC estimates that BA.5 is now the dominant subvariant in Virginia, accounting for over 53% of new cases.
  • BA.4 and BA.5 are both capable of causing reinfections among those with natural and vaccine-induced immunity. Models suggest these two subvariants may cause a small case surge in the coming months.
  • Residents of high and medium community level counties should take appropriate precautions. Those who are eligible for a 4th vaccination dose should also get boosted as soon as possible.
  • Note that this is an interim week report. Models were last run on 2022-06-29. The next modeling update will be 2022-07-13 for release the following Friday.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.