UVA COVID-19 Model Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates have remained relatively stable over the last few weeks. But test positivity, wastewater surveillance, and hospitalization trends all suggest growth across Virginia. This matches the trends seen in neighboring states. Hospitalizations continue to climb in Maryland, Washington DC, and West Virginia.
  • Seventeen districts are in growth trajectories, with three of these districts surging. Fifty localities are now at “High” community levels. A further sixty are at “Medium” community levels. Residents in these counties should take appropriate preventive measures.
  • The BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants have continued to make in-roads and are now dominant in Virginia.
  • Models project a small rise in cases in the coming weeks. They also show a potential for future growth in the Fall. This will depend on seasonality and the introduction of potential future variants.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.