UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates have plateaued but are still high in most areas of the Commonwealth. On average, rates are over five times higher than they were in Summer of 2021. Statewide hospitalizations may have peaked last week and are showing signs of decline.
  • Eighteen health districts are in growth trajectories, with three in surge. But, the effective reproduction number (Rₑ) remains below one for all regions. This suggests that case rates have plateaued and may decline in the coming weeks.
  • The CDC estimates that the BA.5 Omicron subvariant now accounts for over 85% of new cases in Virginia. BA.4.6 and BA.2.75 are not yet making significant inroads in the Commonwealth.
  • Models suggest Virginia will experience a continued gradual decline in case rates. Seasonal forcing or a new variant could potentially cause a surge by November. Conversely, Omicron-specific boosters could tamp down such surges and prevent thousands of hospitalizations.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.