UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates across the Commonwealth continue to decline slowly. The effective reproduction number (Rₑ) is less than one for all regions of Virginia. Reported cases are down almost 20% since the end of July.
  • Most health districts are in declining case rate trajectories. Ten are in growth trajectories with three of these in surge.
  • Statewide, COVID19-like visits to urgent cares and emergency rooms have plateaued in the last 11-weeks. Wastewater surveillance also suggests that cases are leveling off at the state level. Both metrics show mixed results at the regional level.
  • Hospitalizations in Virginia have plateaued. Models forecast a decline in hospitalizations in the coming weeks. The severity of disease in hospitalized patients also continues to lessen.
  • Variant prevalence has evolved as expected. BA.5 remains the dominant subvariant, with BA.4.6 making slight inroads. BA.2.75 has not yet been detected in a significant number of samples.
  • Note that this is an interim week report. Models were last run on 2022-08-10. The next modeling update will be 2022-08-24 for release the following Friday.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH COVID-19 Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.