UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

Case rates across the Commonwealth continue to decline slowly. The effective reproduction number (Rₑ) is less than one for all regions of Virginia. Reported cases are down almost 20% since the end of July.
Most health districts are in declining case rate trajectories. Ten are in growth trajectories with three of these in surge.
Statewide, COVID19-like visits to urgent cares and emergency rooms have plateaued in the last 11-weeks. Wastewater surveillance also suggests that cases are leveling off at the state level. Both metrics show mixed results at the regional level.
Hospitalizations in Virginia have plateaued. Models forecast a decline in hospitalizations in the coming weeks. The severity of disease in hospitalized patients also continues to lessen.
Variant prevalence has evolved as expected. BA.5 remains the dominant subvariant, with BA.4.6 making slight inroads. BA.2.75 has not yet been detected in a significant number of samples.
Note that this is an interim week report. Models were last run on 2022-08-10. The next modeling update will be 2022-08-24 for release the following Friday.