UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • New, Omicron-specific, bivalent boosters may be available as early as the first weeks of September. If uptake is strong, these could have a substantial impact on hospitalization rates throughout the fall and winter seasons.
  • While case levels remain high, cases have begun to decline statewide. 28 of Virginia’s 35 health districts are in declining trajectories, while only 4 are in growth trajectories. Alternative indicators (wastewater, urgent care visits) also suggest cases have plateaued or are declining.
  • The BA.5 subvariant remains dominant, while BA.4 subvariants continue to represent about 10% of cases in HHS Region 3. At the moment, there do not appear to be any significant variants on the horizon.
  • Note that the weekly surveillance reports have widened to cover all respiratory diseases as well as monkeypox. COVID19 data is still included in these surveillance reports (below).

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.