UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates continue to decline. Thirty-one of Virginia’s thirty-five health districts are in declining trajectories, with only one (Mount Rogers) in a slow growth trajectory. The transmission rate (Rₑ) is below 1.0 in all regions, and only above 0.9 in the Northern region.
  • Only five localities in the Commonwealth are still reporting “High” community levels. Masking in indoor public places is still recommended for everyone in these communities. A further 25 localities are reporting “Medium” community levels. High-risk individuals in these communities should continue masking as well.
  • Variant proportions continue to evolve as expected. BA.4.6 and BF7 are making slow progress against BA.5 which remains dominant. There is no significant growth by any novel variant in the Commonwealth.
  • Models suggest the possibility of a winter surge. If the Commonwealth follows the same trajectory it did in 2020 and 2021, transmission rates will begin increasing in the next few weeks. It is critical that Virginians get boosted this fall. Models suggest that a bivalent booster campaign could prevent 150,000 cases by March.

Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Projections Dashboard.

UVA COVID-19 District Trajectory Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.