Key Takeaways
- Statewide case rates continue to decline. But some indicators suggest this trend is slowing. The effective reproduction number (Rₑ) has climbed back up to 0.972. This is up from 0.865 last week. Ten more districts have moved into growth trajectories since last week. One district is in surge, the first in a month.
- Only five localities are reporting “High” community levels, though not the same five as last week. The CDC recommends masking in indoor public places for everyone in these communities. Masking is also recommended for high-risk individuals in the 32 localities with “Medium” community levels.
- Hospitalizations in Virginia are still trending downward. They are now down 10% since the start of October. Despite this, they are falling slower than models expected. The rapid declines seen in September may not continue for much longer.
- Variant proportions continue to evolve with no surprises. BF.7 and BA.4.6 are slowly gaining ground against the still dominant BA.5. Newcomers like BA.2.75.2 are not growing significantly in Virginia at the moment.
- Models suggest that a winter surge is possible. Transmission rates may begin to rise in the coming weeks. If so, a bivalent booster campaign could prevent 150,000 cases in the coming months. Please consider getting boosted as soon as possible.
- Note that this is an interim week report. Models were last run on 2022-10-05. The next modeling update will be 2022-10-19 for release the following Friday.
UVA COVID-19 Model Projections Dashboard.
UVA COVID-19 District Trajectory Dashboard.
UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.
This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.