UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Posted on by alextelionis

Key Takeaways

  • For the third week, not a single county or city is experiencing high COVID19 community levels. More than 95% of Virginians reside in localities at low community levels.
  • Seventeen localities, with 407,000 residents, are at medium community levels. High-risk individuals in these areas should wear a mask when in indoor public places.
  • XBB.1.5 remains the dominant variant. It accounts for an estimated 94% of sequenced cases in HHS Region 3 according to CDC’s Nowcast. There are no exceptional variants on the horizon.
  • Models project continued declines in COVID-19 confirmed cases and hospitalizations. Influenza rates are also expected to remain low.
  • The COVID-19 modeling and analytics products will transition to an all-threats framework over the coming weeks. Work on COVID-19 will continue. But efforts will expand to include other emerging public health threats.

VDH Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.