UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Weekly case rates are continuing along a steady decline. As of February 21, the seven-day average of daily cases is 9.73 per 100k. This is down 44% in a month. The daily average has not been below 10 per 100k since November of 2022.
  • For the second week in a row, not a single county or city is reporting high COVID19 community levels. Thirty-three locales (covering 1.55 million Virginians) are reporting medium community levels. High-risk individuals in these areas should wear a mask in indoor public places.
  • Hospitalizations have been dwindling since early January. The seven-day moving average of new admissions is 500. This is down almost 40% in a month. Last week saw a rise in ICU occupancy and the number of patients needing ventilator support. But both of these figures have resumed their downward trajectory this week. Both have reached lows not seen since November of 2022.
  • The evolution of variant proportions is progressing as expected. XBB.1.5 remains dominant and accounts for almost 94% of new cases in Virginia. No other variants are showing significant growth. In fact, CH.1.1 seems to be losing ground.
  • Models forecast a small uptick in hospitalizations in the coming weeks. This should not exceed January’s rates. A surge is not expected in the near future.
  • Note that this is an interim week report. Models were last run on 2023-02-13. The next modeling update will be 2023-02-27 for release the following Friday.

VDH Weekly Modeling Report.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.