UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Weekly case rates have declined consistently for the last six weeks. As of February 14, the seven-day average of daily cases is 12.22 per 100,000. This represents a 40% reduction over the last month.
  • No counties or cities in Virginia are reporting high COVID19 community levels. This is the first such report since November 2022. Fifty-two locales, representing 2.37 million Virginians, are reporting medium community levels. High-risk individuals in these areas should continue to wear a mask in indoor public places.
  • Statewide hospitalization trends continue their steady decline. The seven-day moving average of new admissions is now 558. This is down 44% in the last month. However, some signs of growth are being observed at the regional level. Neighboring states like Tennessee, are also showing hospitalization rate growth.
  • CDC estimates of variant proportions are unremarkable. XBB.1.5 accounts for over 85% of new cases. BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 have been largely displaced and now account for less than 10% of new cases. No significant growth has been observed in any other variants including CH.1.1.
  • Some surveillance metrics hint at the possibility of new growth. But models suggest that a major surge is unlikely (see page three). An increase in cases may be possible, but hospital system load is not expected to swell in the short term.

VDH Weekly Modeling Report.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.