- Models are designed to project what could happen based on current trends but do not forecast what will happen. Behavioral responses drive changes in current trends.
- The reproduction rate has increased in all districts, and is above 1.0 statewide and in all but one region.
- Weekly incidence in Virginia (12/100K) is increasing but is still below the also increasing national average (19.6/100K).
- 5 Health Districts entered surge trajectories and the number with declining trajectories dropped significantly.
- While early, national and global trends suggest concerns about winter case growth and schools reopening may be founded.
UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.