UVA COVID-19 Model Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Models are designed to project what could happen based on current trends but do not forecast what will happen. Behavioral responses drive changes in current trends.
  • The statewide reproduction rate dipped below 1.0 for the first time since September, but regional results are mixed. Far Southwest Va has remained above 1.0 since mid-September.
  • Weekly incidence in Virginia (12/100K) remains stable. Nationally, incidence continues to surge (27/100K), particularly in the Midwest states.
  • Kentucky and Tennessee are both experiencing high and growing incidence, which may be affecting Southwest Va.
  • National and state trends are concerning as we enter the holiday season, heralding colder weather and increased travel.

Full Weekly Report.

UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

RAND Corporation Situation & Research Update.