UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

  • Weekly case rates across the Commonwealth continue to grow. They are now at 22.1 per 100k. This is up from only 10.6 per 100k in the last week of November.
  • Thirty-two of Virginia’s thirty-five health districts are now in growth trajectories. Twenty-five of these are experiencing surges.
  • Nineteen counties and cities are reporting high COVID19 community levels. The CDC recommends residents of these areas wear masks when in indoor public places. Another 62 locales are at medium community levels. The CDC recommends masking for high-risk individuals in these areas.
  • COVID19 hospitalizations are continuing to grow. There are 776 Virginians currently hospitalized for COVID19. Of these, 82 are in the Intensive Care Unit, and 29 are on ventilators. All three metrics are up more than 50% since this time last month.
  • Variant proportions are continuing to change as expected. BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are still dominant. Growth of BF.7 and BN.1 has stagnated. But XBB is starting to show significant growth. It now accounts for almost 20% of new cases.
  • Models suggest that a surge is likely. Combined with flu and RSV this will severely tax the hospital system. Please consider getting your flu shot and bivalent COVID19 boosters if you haven’t already. Also please continue to practice good prevention.
  • Note that the Biocomplexity Institute will be closed next week. As a result, there will be no modeling update next week. We anticipate releasing another interim report in the first week of January. A full UVA modeling run is tentatively scheduled for 2023-01-11. Happy holidays!

VDH Weekly Modeling Report.

Model Projections Dashboard.

District Trajectory Dashboard.

Case Progression Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides*

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

* No slides were generated due to university holiday closures.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.