Key Takeaways
- There are subtle signs that Virginia may experience growth in the coming weeks. But cases and hospitalizations are still plateaued at a low level.
- Case rates are down slightly from last week (12.4 vs 13.1 per 100,000). Hospital and ICU occupancy figures are nearly identical to last week’s rates. Only three localities are report “High” community levels. In these locales, masking is recommended in indoor public places.
- The statewide effective reproduction number (Rₑ) is down slightly and remains below one (0.905). All regions are also below one. Yet, some districts are showing growth. Two are in surge, another 15 in slow growth.
- Variant proportions are evolving as expected. BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are growing quickly. Together they represent almost 45% of new cases in Virginia. BF.7 is also growing. We see no evidence of significant BA.2.75.2 or XBB growth.
- Models suggest that another winter surge is possible. This could be driven by weather, travel, and the new variants. Models also suggest that bivalent boosters could prevent tens of thousands of cases. If you haven’t already gotten your booster, please consider getting one when possible.
- Note that this is an interim week report. Models were last run on 2022-11-02. The next modeling update will be 2022-11-16 for release the following Friday.
District Trajectory Dashboard.
UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.
No VDH Surveillance Data Update this week. The surveillance team spent the week working to update the design and scope of the report. Future versions may include more detailed data on other respiratory diseases. A full length presentation is expected next week and will be included as usual.
This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.