UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Key Takeaways

Weekly cases across the Commonwealth have risen to 17.6 per 100k. This figure is up from 10.6 per 100k last week. The statewide effective reproduction number (Rₑ) is now 1.067. All health regions aside from Northwest are also above one.
Thirty health districts are now in growth trajectories. Fifteen of these are in surge.
Ten counties and cities are now reporting high CDC community levels. Masking is recommended for all residents in these areas. A further 55 locales are at medium community levels, where masking is recommended for high-risk individuals.
COVID19 hospitalizations are up to 650 this week. This is the highest they’ve been since September 20th. This also represents a 35% increase in two weeks. Influenza hospitalizations are up significantly as well. Flu cases now account for almost half of respiratory illness hospitalizations in Virginia. Continued growth by both may tax the hospital system in the coming weeks.
Variant proportions have evolved as expected, with BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 dominating new growth. Growth of BF.7 and BN.1 has stagnated, but XBB is starting to emerge.
Models continue to suggest the possibility of another winter surge. It is critical for Virginians to get their flu shots and their bivalent COVID19 boosters. Along with practicing good prevention, this can help significantly slow the coming surge.
Note that this is an interim week report. Models were last run on 2022-11-30. The next modeling update will be 2022-12-14 for release the following Friday.