UVA COVID-19 Modeling Weekly Update

Posted on by alextelionis

Key Takeaways

  • Case rates and hospitalizations remain low across Virginia. Only five Virginia localities are at high CDC community levels, and 27 at medium. Masking is recommended for all in high community level areas, and for high risk individuals in medium community levels.
  • Some signs suggest recent declines may be slowing. Thirteen of Virginia’s 35 health districts are in slow growth trajectories, while fewer are in decline. The statewide effective reproduction number (Rₑ) has increased to 1.0.
  • Influenza continues to be high in all regions of the state. There are now almost as many hospitalized for flu in Virginia as COVID-19. Vaccination provides the best protection from both diseases.
  • Short-term forecasts expect a decrease in flu hospitalizations over the next few weeks. This is balanced by an expected increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations.

VDH Weekly Modeling Report.

Model Projections Dashboard.

District Trajectory Dashboard.

Case Progression Dashboard.

UVA Biocomplexity Institute Slides.

VDH Surveillance Data Update.

This page updates weekly on Friday by 5:00 PM.